El impacto del comercio internacional en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador: análisis para el período 2000-2022
Resumen
Este estudio analiza la influencia de la apertura comercial, la inversión extranjera directa (IED) y la deuda externa en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador desde el año 2000. A través de un enfoque econométrico, se exploran las oportunidades y desafíos que estos factores presentan para el desarrollo sostenible del país. Los principales resultados indican que la apertura comercial y la IED tienen un impacto positivo en el crecimiento económico, mientras que la deuda externa ejerce un efecto negativo. Un aumento del 1% en la apertura comercial está asociado con un incremento del PIB de 0.42%, mientras que un aumento similar en la IED genera un impacto positivo del 0.31%. En contraste, un incremento del 1% en la deuda externa está vinculado con una disminución del PIB en un 0.21%. Las conclusiones ofrecen recomendaciones para fortalecer la resiliencia y competitividad de Ecuador en un entorno económico internacional en constante cambio.
Descargas
##plugins.generic.paperbuzz.metrics##
Citas
Acosta, A., Ponce, J., & Vos, R. (2020). Ecuador: los desafíos de la diversificación económica. FLACSO.
Abeliansky, A. L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Prettner, K. (2020). 3D printing, international trade, and FDI. Economic Modelling, 85, 288–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.014
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (2016). A model of growth through a model of growth through creative destruction. Society, The Econometric, 60(2), 323–351.
Akinola, G., & Ohonba, A. (2024). The effects of external debt and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria. Economies, 12(6), 142. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060142
Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
Baldwin, R., & Seghezza, E. (1996). Trade-induced investment-led growth. CEPR Discussion Paper Series.
Banco Central del Ecuador. (2021). Informe anual de estadísticas económicas. BCE.
Banco Central del Ecuador. (2024). Exportaciones totales (2000-2022) en millones de dólares FOB.
Banco Central del Ecuador. (2024). Importaciones totales (2000-2022) en millones de dólares FOB.
Banco Mundial. (2022). Infrastructure development and economic growth. World Bank Publications.
Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic growth. McGraw-Hill.
Barros, L., & Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2022). Systematic literature review on trade liberalization and sustainable development. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 33, 921–931. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.08.012
Beckerman, P. (2000). Dollarization and semi-dollarization in Ecuador. World Bank.
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (2018). Foreign direct investment and economic growth. MIT Press.
Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S., & Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt. BIS Working. CEPAL. (2023). Latin American Economic System. OECD. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789213585009c215
Chowdhury, S., Sharma, R. R., & Yu, Y. (2023). Inward foreign direct investment in emerging economies: a review and future research avenues. Review of International Business and Strategy, 33(5), 717-739. https://doi.org/10.1108/RIBS-03-2022-0033
Clements, B., Nguyen, T., & Bhattacharya, R. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Papers, 03(249), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875904.001
De Mello, L. (1997). Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: a selective survey. Journal of Development Studies, 34(1), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389708422501
Edwards, S. (2015). Openness, trade liberalization and growth in developing countries. AgEcon Search. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.294683
FAO. (2020). Informe sobre la agricultura y el desarrollo rural en América Latina. Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura.
Feyrer, J. (2019). Trade and income-exploiting time series in geography. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(4), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170616
Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
Herzer, D. (2011). The long-run relationship between outward foreign direct investment and total factor productivity: evidence for developing countries. Journal of Development Studies, 47(5), 767–785. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2010.509790
Intisar, R., Yaseen, M., Kousar, R., Usman, M., & Amjad Makhdum, M. S. (2020). Impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth: a comparative investigation of Asian countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072930
Krueger, A. (1998). Why trade liberalisation is good for growth. Economic Journal, 108(450), 1513–1522. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00358
Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2
Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (2003). International economics: theory and Policy. Pearson Addison-Wesley.
Londoño-Espinosa, S., Reza Paocarina, É., León Serrano, L., & Morales-Noriega, A. (2021). La sostenibilidad del endeudamiento público en Ecuador: una visión de mediano plazo. Podium, (40), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.31095/podium.2021.40.4
Lucas, R. (1988). World devziopment report. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42.
Ministerio de Comercio Exterior. (2021). Informe anual de comercio exterior. Ministerio de Comercio Exterior de Ecuador.
Nguyễn, H., & Phan, T. (2023). Impact of economic growth, international trade, and FDI on sustainable development in developing countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04060-9
Nguyen, M., & Bui, T. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth: a study on asean-6. Economies, 9(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030113
Ocampo, J., & Martin, J. (2007). Globalization and development. Economic commission for Latin America and the caribbean.
Ocampo, J., & Vallejo, J. (2012). Economic growth, equity and human development in Latin America. Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, 13(1), 107–133. https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2011.637395
Onafowora, O., & Owoye, O. (2019). Public debt, foreign direct investment and economic growth dynamics: empirical evidence from the Caribbean. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(5), 769-791. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-01-2018-0050
Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002–1037.
Pigka-Balanika, V. (2013). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: evidence in developing countries. Business Economics, 18(1), 327–333.
ProEcuador. (2021). Informe anual de exportaciones. ProEcuador.
Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573
Rodrik, D. (1998). Trade policy and economic performance in sub-saharan Africa. NBER Working Paper Series. http://www.nber.org/papers/w6562
Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3210
Sachs, J., Warner, A., Aslund, A., & Fischer, S. (1995). Economic reform and the process of global integration. The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Silajdzic, S., & Mehic, E. (2018). Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from transition economies. Trade and global market. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.75812
Salvatore, D. (2010). International economics. Wiley.
Derechos de autor 2024 Jefferson Lenin Paredes Álvarez, Luis Tomas Rodríguez Robles, José Luis Rivera Velasco
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObrasDerivadas 4.0.
