The impact of international trade on Ecuador's economic growth: an analysis for the period 2000-2022

  • Jefferson Lenin Paredes Álvarez Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador http://orcid.org/0009-0000-3585-7942
  • Luis Tomas Rodríguez Robles Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador
  • José Luis Rivera Velasco Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador
Keywords: International trade; Economic growth; External debt; Foreign investment; Trade policy.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and external debt on Ecuador's economic growth since 2000. Through an econometric approach, the opportunities and challenges these factors present for the country’s sustainable development are explored. The main results indicate that trade openness and FDI have a positive impact on economic growth, while external debt exerts a negative effect. A 1% increase in trade openness is associated with a 0.42% increase in GDP, while a similar increase in FDI generates a 0.31% positive impact. In contrast, a 1% rise in external debt is linked to a 0.21% decrease in GDP. The conclusions provide recommendations to strengthen Ecuador's resilience and competitiveness in an ever-changing international economic environment.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Author Biographies

Jefferson Lenin Paredes Álvarez, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador

Estudiante de la carrera de Economía de 8vo semestre en la universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo

Luis Tomas Rodríguez Robles, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador

Estudiante de la carrera de Economía de 8vo semestre en la universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo

José Luis Rivera Velasco, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo | Quevedo | Ecuador

Magister en Economía y Dirección de Empresas; Economista; Coordinador de Área en la Carrera de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Económicas y Financieras de la Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo

References

Acosta, A., Ponce, J., & Vos, R. (2020). Ecuador: los desafíos de la diversificación económica. FLACSO.

Abeliansky, A. L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Prettner, K. (2020). 3D printing, international trade, and FDI. Economic Modelling, 85, 288–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.014

Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (2016). A model of growth through a model of growth through creative destruction. Society, The Econometric, 60(2), 323–351.

Akinola, G., & Ohonba, A. (2024). The effects of external debt and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria. Economies, 12(6), 142. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060142

Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x

Baldwin, R., & Seghezza, E. (1996). Trade-induced investment-led growth. CEPR Discussion Paper Series.

Banco Central del Ecuador. (2021). Informe anual de estadísticas económicas. BCE.

Banco Central del Ecuador. (2024). Exportaciones totales (2000-2022) en millones de dólares FOB.

Banco Central del Ecuador. (2024). Importaciones totales (2000-2022) en millones de dólares FOB.

Banco Mundial. (2022). Infrastructure development and economic growth. World Bank Publications.

Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic growth. McGraw-Hill.

Barros, L., & Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2022). Systematic literature review on trade liberalization and sustainable development. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 33, 921–931. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.08.012

Beckerman, P. (2000). Dollarization and semi-dollarization in Ecuador. World Bank.

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. (2018). Foreign direct investment and economic growth. MIT Press.

Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S., & Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt. BIS Working. CEPAL. (2023). Latin American Economic System. OECD. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789213585009c215

Chowdhury, S., Sharma, R. R., & Yu, Y. (2023). Inward foreign direct investment in emerging economies: a review and future research avenues. Review of International Business and Strategy, 33(5), 717-739. https://doi.org/10.1108/RIBS-03-2022-0033

Clements, B., Nguyen, T., & Bhattacharya, R. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Papers, 03(249), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451875904.001

De Mello, L. (1997). Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: a selective survey. Journal of Development Studies, 34(1), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389708422501

Edwards, S. (2015). Openness, trade liberalization and growth in developing countries. AgEcon Search. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.294683

FAO. (2020). Informe sobre la agricultura y el desarrollo rural en América Latina. Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura.

Feyrer, J. (2019). Trade and income-exploiting time series in geography. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(4), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170616

Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.

Herzer, D. (2011). The long-run relationship between outward foreign direct investment and total factor productivity: evidence for developing countries. Journal of Development Studies, 47(5), 767–785. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2010.509790

Intisar, R., Yaseen, M., Kousar, R., Usman, M., & Amjad Makhdum, M. S. (2020). Impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth: a comparative investigation of Asian countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072930

Krueger, A. (1998). Why trade liberalisation is good for growth. Economic Journal, 108(450), 1513–1522. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00358

Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29(3), 253–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2

Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (2003). International economics: theory and Policy. Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Londoño-Espinosa, S., Reza Paocarina, É., León Serrano, L., & Morales-Noriega, A. (2021). La sostenibilidad del endeudamiento público en Ecuador: una visión de mediano plazo. Podium, (40), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.31095/podium.2021.40.4

Lucas, R. (1988). World devziopment report. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42.

Ministerio de Comercio Exterior. (2021). Informe anual de comercio exterior. Ministerio de Comercio Exterior de Ecuador.

Nguyễn, H., & Phan, T. (2023). Impact of economic growth, international trade, and FDI on sustainable development in developing countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04060-9

Nguyen, M., & Bui, T. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth: a study on asean-6. Economies, 9(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030113

Ocampo, J., & Martin, J. (2007). Globalization and development. Economic commission for Latin America and the caribbean.

Ocampo, J., & Vallejo, J. (2012). Economic growth, equity and human development in Latin America. Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, 13(1), 107–133. https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2011.637395

Onafowora, O., & Owoye, O. (2019). Public debt, foreign direct investment and economic growth dynamics: empirical evidence from the Caribbean. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(5), 769-791. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-01-2018-0050

Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002–1037.

Pigka-Balanika, V. (2013). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: evidence in developing countries. Business Economics, 18(1), 327–333.

ProEcuador. (2021). Informe anual de exportaciones. ProEcuador.

Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573

Rodrik, D. (1998). Trade policy and economic performance in sub-saharan Africa. NBER Working Paper Series. http://www.nber.org/papers/w6562

Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3210

Sachs, J., Warner, A., Aslund, A., & Fischer, S. (1995). Economic reform and the process of global integration. The Johns Hopkins University Press.

Silajdzic, S., & Mehic, E. (2018). Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from transition economies. Trade and global market. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.75812

Salvatore, D. (2010). International economics. Wiley.

Published
2024-11-11
How to Cite
Paredes Álvarez, J. L., Rodríguez Robles, L. T., & Rivera Velasco, J. L. (2024). The impact of international trade on Ecuador’s economic growth: an analysis for the period 2000-2022. Religación, 9(42), e2401284. https://doi.org/10.46652/rgn.v9i42.1284